Sunday, 8 March 2020

Coronavirus March Meltdown

February and the first week of March have seen a sizeable slice of value taken off of the stock markets, thanks mainly to the COVID-19. Oil prices are taking a hammering and the recent failure of OPEC to come to an agreement to cut oil production is only likely to exacerbate the decline in oil prices. Add in a bit of hard Brexit and there's a pretty potent mix, for the UK markets in particular.

China seems to be slowly coming back online, but we are seeing increasing numbers of infections reported across other regions. In the UK the FTSE has seen a couple of days of selling that appear to be particularly panicked, so I thought it would be interesting to see what has sold off, and by how much. There is a googlesheet here with the data and charts.

The FTSE100 has lost around 13.5% over the last month or so, the red line on the chart below shows the index performance.

Perhaps unsurprisingly travel, miners, retailers and financials are all taking a hit, losing more than the index. Utilities and supermarkets all holding up. I find it interesting to see which businesses have more resilient share prices, and wonder which are getting caught up in the selling, and are unlikely to see much impact from the virus when the dust has settled. Smith & Nephew for example is a healthcare company selling medical devices and wound dressings, and is down 10%.

I also wonder whether those more resilient share prices are actually the companies in which I want to invest. After all if a global pandemic, oil price crash and resurrections of a hard Brexit don't make a dent in the prices, they are probably the sorts of companies I'm after.

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